20180601前海期货深度报告：油脂供需边际趋紧
报告摘要
n 厄尔尼诺令植物油供给下降，全球库存消费比降至低位。中国植物油继续处于去库存进程，库存压力不断降低。
n 2018年豆油面临大豆供给下滑冲击，菜油在持续数年去库存后，目前国储菜油极为有限且库存大降九成，棕榈油产量增速亦趋缓，还可能遭遇马来西亚树龄老化带来单产持续下降的可能，总体上油脂供给将低于市场预期。
n 基于供给不及预期的展望，推荐逢低买入油脂，并可考虑做多油粕比及豆油基差。
Ø 植物油供需格局偏紧
Ø 豆油供给前景不乐观
Ø 菜油持续去库存
Ø 单产下滑或拖累棕榈油供给
Ø 策略推荐
Abstract
n EI Nino climate reduced the output of vegetable oil and lowered the stocks-to-use ratio. Vegetable oil in China has been in the process of destocking, thus the inventory is declining.
n Reduction of soybean supply may shrink the output of soybean oil in 2018. Official reserve of rapeseed oil has declined 90% after destocking in past years. The palm oil output also grew slower and per unit yield may decrease caused by Malaysian palm trees’ ageing. In sum, the supply of vegetable oil will be under expectation.
n Since the supply is under expectation, buying on the dips is recommended. Meanwhile, longing soybean oil-to-meal ratio and soybean oil basis shall be considered.
Ø Demand-supply of vegetable oil becomes tight
Ø Unoptimistic prospect of soybean oil supply
Ø Continuous destocking of rapeseed oil
Ø Declined yield per acre may drag down the supply of palm oil
Ø Investment strategy recommendation
