20180709前海期货原油半年报：油价中枢上移 事件决定预期
报告摘要
n 2018年上半年WTI期货价格继续单边涨势，最高升至74美元之上，涨幅最高时超过24%。
n 如果美国对伊朗的制裁生效并且被严格实施，原油价格往往会在短期内飙涨；如果制裁得不到执行，则会使原油直接回吐此前因为美国退出伊核协议并提出制裁带来上涨。
n 如果中美贸易战的情况继续恶化，那么区域性甚至全球性的经济下滑将在所难免，这种悲观预期会直接反应在市场对原油需求的担忧上，导致原油下挫。
Ø 2018年上半年原油价格回顾
Ø 伊核问题：中东势力制衡的关键
Ø 中美贸易战：国内矛盾在国际事务上的延伸
Ø 全球供需格局回顾与展望：多方博弈，扑朔迷离
Ø 国内贸易与需求展望：贸易结构改变，炼油发展迅猛
Ø 2018年下半年展望：上升压力持续，波动幅度较大
Abstract
n WTI price rose more than 24% in 1H18, up to USD74/ bbl.
n If the US sanctions against Iran come into force and are strictly enforced, the price of crude oil would tend to surge in the short term. If the sanctions are not implemented well, crude oil would be sent back to the price level before the US withdrew the nuclear agreement and announced the sanctions.
n If the situation of the Sino US trade war continues to deteriorate, a regional or even global economic downturn will be unavoidable, and this pessimistic expectation would directly increase the market concern about a loss in oil demand, leading to a decline in oil price.
Ø Market review of oil price in 1H18
Ø Iran nuclear issue: the key of power balance in middle east
Ø The Sino US trade war: domestic affairs stretched to international relations
Ø Review and prospect of global supply-demand structure: a multi-game
Ø Domestic trade and demand outlook: change of trade structure & Rapid development of oil refining industry
Ø Outlook for 2H18: rising pressure & high volatility
20180709前海期货—原油产业链半年报—油价中枢上移 事件决定预期.pdf
