20180709前海期货动力煤半年报：动力煤把握季节性投资机会
报告摘要
n 主要北方港口煤炭库存总体维持年内高位，迎峰度夏的旺季预期提高了行业的备货、囤货倾向。
n 迎峰度夏时期，煤炭日耗在70万吨，但由于库存充裕，电厂采购压力不大。
n 长江中上游地区进入汛期，三峡水库入库流量持续增加，长江梯级电站出力将不断攀升，水电替代效应季节性增强。
n 动力煤市场具有较强的季节性特征，迎峰度夏和冬季采暖季是两个波峰，中间则会出现波谷。
Ø 上半年走势回顾
Ø 影响因素分析
Ø 行情展望与投资策略
Abstract
n Coal stocks at China's main northern ports remain at high level of the year. Expectation for peak season in the summer increases buyers’ tendency to hoard coal.
n During the peak summer period, daily consumption of coal is around 700 thousand tons, but due to sufficient coal stocks, major domestic power generation companies’ procurement pressure is not large.
n As the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River entered the flood season, inflow to the Three Gorges reservoir continued to increase. Power generation of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station is edging up, and the substitution effect of the hydropower increases seasonally.
n Thermal coal market has strong seasonal characteristics. Usually, there is a trough between summer peak and winter peak.
Ø Market review in 1H18
Ø Analysis of influencing factors
Ø Market outlook and strategy recommendation
20180709前海期货—动力煤产业链半年报—动力煤把握季节性投资机会.pdf
